How much does a 1-minute of stagnation cost? - Bar Railway syndrome

“If, however, you want to retain some control of your personal existence and of the future of life, you have to run faster than the algorithms, faster than Amazon and the government, and get to know yourself before they do. To run fast, don’t take much luggage with you. Leave all your illusions behind. They are very heavy.” Yuval Noah Harari

We have not done badly in the redistribution of roles in the play on a global for this decade. Intralogistics is still within minutes and steps, and these are tangible and familiar sizes. For example, Biology and Physics are in a much more difficult situation – their role is related to Nano-sizes. The pressure on these sciences is really great. Artificial intelligence and HMI are waiting to take matters into their own hands. Yes - that is how it sounds when we know they do not have hands. In issue 71 of this same magazine, in February 2018, the topic was Industry 4.0. Various things were discussed, among other things, and the treasure of that time - data. We know that the fight for data started even before the creation of Facebook and over time it was only legalized and introduced into legal flows, but with a wide space for manipulation - maybe there was no bad intention, but the possibilities for manipulations are huge - data do not have citizenship, do not know borders and do not have a place of residence. Now it is the  same, only the things have accelerated and directed.

What changes are awaiting us?

Two years later, 2020, we concluded that they have all the data, they have improved the way the collected data is processed, and they have found new clouds for storage…

New generations deliver them all the necessary information about themselves even easier and at a lower price, in exchange for clicking on a popular song, a free watch on Netflix, or the Fortnite game. They only need nanotechnology and biotechnology to be able to take the project to the next level. Namely, in 2018, we asked Google for anything and everything, and it responded to our ads neatly and took us where we wanted. When Physics and Biology are in Nano-capabilities (which is in 5-10 years), everything will be performed by an interface that will know better than ourselves what is best for us. We will still have our desires, but algorithms will be proven to decide better on our behalf.

Therefore, big changes are happening globally, it should be the same on the local.

The development of new technologies, as collateral, gives impetus to the development of Intralogistics. What we can use from that, how to improve the business, or secure a place on the market, are just some of the questions.

Providing a valid answer to a question from the title, at the very least, is harder than it seems. First of all, do we know how much exactly does our 1-minute cost?

Let’s say that reading this text takes 5 minutes, how much does it actually cost and do you even have an economic calculation/time/reason to spend those 5 minutes.

Or, a minute of the whole company, how much is it worth?

The airline has its own calculation; the tailors’ shop has its own. Production lines in breweries have a capacity of up to 100,000, bottles/h, their minute is quite expensive. The car industry has a super complex work cycle but they also have the price of that minute. With this information, they keep the business risk within acceptable limits.

That is how they handle the delays that happen every day, and they cost a lot. Suppose it is a 2-minute delay on the line. Let’s look at the cause/place/time of downtime, as well as the impact on other  sectors within the company. Our market, like most of the surrounding ones, has a serious problem defining that minute. The problem is that we do not have the criteria and awareness to evaluate our work.

For the last 50 years, our own minute has not been valued here. A legacy that our generation inherited, and we did not have enough intellect and knowledge to change it, In the 70s of the XX century, the Belgrade-Bar railway was built. A project of unimaginable proportions for then (and today), several world records is in the high bridges and the lengths and number of tunnels. There are many interesting things about this project. From our point of view, two things are interesting.

Primarily, if someone in the then socialist self-governing system had been able to, better to say, had the need to see ROI-return on investment, the result would have been eight.

For the example, Hamburg-Frankfurt has 70 cargo compositions daily. In addition, the project was complex, the conditions almost on the verge of overcoming; the workforce was a decisive factor. A huge number of workers were needed and it is clear that this could only be financed if the cost of labor was zero. The food and the accommodation cost money but every working minute was valued with zero.

50 YEARS LATER AND THAT ZERO STILL STANDS

If I am renovating something around the house and I want to do it myself, do I add my 5 hours spent on that work to the price of the material? The master to paint a boat, he is expensive then I buy can of paint, abrade, and paint it for 55 hours with a zero cost. However, these things can be justified at home, as it is alright when you go to the sea in Khalkidhiki to calculate the fuel to get there and meals,  coffees, ice creams along the way. That is everything all right when we are on vacation, we are resting.

It is not good because our market works like this, as if we have “Bar Railway syndrome”. A service technician from Niš, who is preparing an offer for machine service in Belgrade, first he calculates how much fuel to go there and back and how much he will spend for the meal. In addition, with that, he adds a price for 2 working hours on the spot. A businessman who goes to a fair in Dusseldorf calculates a BG-DUS plane ticket, transfers, 2 nights in a hotel, and expenses on the spot, but he never adds his 2-3 working days.

The problem with the minute is specific because we are always late to define it-the minute has already passed. If the minute is lost, it will never be compensated. That minute is the same as a box of  Marlboro red short, that it did not find in the shop on Saturday morning at the bus station in Svilajnac - lost profit forever.

It has already known with considerable certainty that 40% of existing jobs will disappear in the next 20 years. New jobs will be opened but is difficult to estimate how the fluctuation of people and occupations will unfold. When Biology enables brain engineering, the roles will be divided again. It sounds absurd, but it does not impossible that, in 2050, Google or Amazon has 5 billion employees, relatively that we all work in one company on the planet.

Process engineering and looking at the performance of one’s own business is room for improvement in every business and every market. Our market is far from optimal; therefore, engineering is even more important and practically represents an inexhaustible source of savings. As the market improves and gets closer to optimal, that source-space will decrease. There are many as many hairdressers in Munich as it takes every resident of the city to get a haircut or shave. Each of these hairdressers works exactly 8 hours a day, without a minute of idling.

When we can express all the factors of business in numbers, the solutions appear on their own. The minute is an extremely practical and uniquely universal size, easily understood by all market participants.

No matter how small a minute may seem and to have it in unlimited quantities, it is a trap.

THE NUMBER OF MINUTES IS VERY FINAL
-1 working day has only 450 minutes
-A total of 112,500 pieces for the whole year

DID YOU ANSWER THE QUESTION FROM THE TITLE?

Miloš Gligorijević Dipl.-Ing.
Improving your business since 1984.